Final Four Flops

I can't say this more plainly or enough times - I suck at predicting what will happen in the NCAA tournament.

Granted, I've actually gotten better at the picks now that I watch next to no college basketball games throughout the season. In a hockey town that's the epicenter of a hockey state, basketball is low on the power rankings here. Oh, and the Gopher men's team really, really sucks.

Even out east, I started to fade from the scene without Big 10 basketball on television all the time. I fondly recall that as the time where I almost won a shitload of money in the office pool.

There's really only one real rule for having success in the NCAA pool at your office: Do your level best to pick the Final Four and let the rest of it slide. When you figure you'll only be allowed a few short days to tweak and re-tweak your brackets, spend the majority of your time picking those four.

I used to be the guy who tried to pick all the upsets and scrappy little Sweet 16 teams every year and lost track of where the big points come into play - at the end of the tourney. It's great that you picked Valpo to make a run, but not when you have one team left after the Elite Eight.

It's also worth noting here that if you look at your brackets tonight (like I did) and see four number one seeds, it's time to go back to the drawing board. That's never happened and never will.

Other big traps to avoid:

* I know that team! I know that team! - Do you really think that just because you/your sister/your girlfriend/your roommate went to that school, it's any reason to pick them in the tournament? It's more unreliable than picking by mascot or school colors. At least the secretary in your office who is doing that might actually win. And Tarheel blue is such a pretty color.

I call this the Jake Mueller theory because that's the roommate that ensured I'd always think Creighton is better than it is.

* Be careful of the teams you've watched too much - You know why the big hoop guys never, ever win the tournament? Because they know far too much and paint themselves into all sorts of corners. Whether it's talking yourself into a small mid-major who could run all the way or out of Duke/Carolina/Texas because it's the same pick the idiots would make, it's never a good thing.

There's a saying with regards to pitchers in baseball where you need to make decisions on pulling them from the game by what you think they'll do on the next pitch, not what they did on the last one. People can never see the team that is getting ready for the tournament, only the team's talent. This is always a fatal mistake.

You know why UNC and Kansas are number one seeds? Because they're really fucking good.

You know why Weber State won't win? Because they're Weber State. Case closed.

* No matter how hard you try, some teams will always bone you - We all have our weaknesses. Those little demons that no matter how hard we try, will always take us down and devour us in tiny, painful bites.

There are always a handful of teams that screw me each year. Pick them to go out and they're a mortal lock for the Final Four. Pencil them in for a huge run and they lose to some snot-nosed low seed.

I'm looking at you, Arizona, Michigan State and Duke. You always break my heart, you cruel bastards.

* The perfect storm - Sometimes the universe is just out to get you. Know who will win this year? The team from your exes Alma mater or the team whose uniform you hate or players you just can't stand.

You'll pick for or against them for irrational reasons and it won't end well. You'll ball up your brackets by Saturday night and spend the night screaming at a television in a bar until your significant other gets up and leaves you.

* The best advice - Take your team out of the mix in the first round. Pick the Illini to choke and you'll be happy for your bracket if they do and happy for your team if they don't.

Pick a few upset teams against the teams you really can't stand. It's worth tanking a region on the off chance that Florida goes to hell.

Never, ever pick against Old Dominion in the first round. It's waaay too much fun to cheer for a team you can easily nickname "Ol' Dirty University." Ask Frank the Tank - also check his blog for some "real" analysis.

Resign yourself to the fact that someone will take your money at the end of the tournament. Enjoy the opening weekend, cheer for the Cinderellas and realize there are worse ways to completely squander 20 bucks.

Like retirement funds or the stock market. When they start trading shares of the Wu-Tang, then we'll talk.

(Image from: somewhatfrank.typepad.com / collegehoopsnet.com)