Saturday, January 06, 2007

Contenders and Pretenders

There's a post-season football pool at work that is getting off the ground today and it's been driving me crazy pretty much all week.

The basics are that you pick two QBs, three RBs, etc. and pick up points as they move through the playoffs. Because of this, there's an important wrinkle in the way this works - a good running back who plays three games will be a better pick than a great back whose team goes one and done.

The weird thing this year is there's no clear cut favorite heading in. The teams that started hot cooled down the stretch and the teams that had to sprint to the finish don't seem to be very good - Chiefs, ahem, Chiefs - so the traditional "peaking at the right time" team seems to be out of the equation.

When chalk and common sense points to the Chargers as the favorites, it's been a strange year.

In laying out a lineup, the first step was to figure out who has a shot and who doesn't. In the interest of keeping this shot and letting the "football" tags cool off before I have to spin off a Siberian Football site like I had to do with baseball, here's how I see it.

Teams with a shot at hitting the Super Bowl:

NFC: Bears and Saints
AFC: Chargers and Ravens

The Big Maybes:

NFC: Cowboys and Seahawks
AFC: Colts and Patriots

The No Way in Hells:

NFC: Eagles and Giants
AFC: Chiefs and Jets

Just how I'm seeing it this morning. I will be completely wrong by 6 p.m. today.

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